How Good Are You at Political
and Economic Forecasting?
 
 

We know more than ever before about how to make accurate predictions (e.g., Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction) and this tournament is a scientific experiment to help us understand even more!

This is your chance to test and hone your prediction skills by joining us in The Foresight Project! This tournament is designed to help us understand the characteristics of the most accurate forecasters and the forecasting environments that bring out the best in them. If you follow politics and want to learn to forecast better, join us!

We begin on Sept 25, 2018. Although this is the third of three tournaments (2016-2019), you can start this year. The tournament will last for about 9 months (Sept ’19 – June ’20). If you join, you will be asked to:

  • Take a 1 hour battery of political and psychological tests to help us predict the skills that correlate with accuracy. You will get feedback about where you stand relative to others. Make predictions about questions as often as you wish! We will post a few questions online each week, for example, "Will Donald Trump still be president on June 30, 2019?" or "Will Iran conduct another missile test before Dec 31, 2018?" Select the questions that you like and update your predictions until the question closes. Then get feedback about your accuracy. The top 10% of forecasters will be featured on the Foresight Leaderboard.

Now, for the Thank You Gifts... If you attempt 25 or more questions throughout the year, you are eligible to win gifts. If you are in the top 2% of forecasters, you will receive a $500 Amazon Gift Card. The next 100 most accurate forecasters will receive a $100 Amazon Gift Card. All others will receive a $25 Amazon Gift Card.

  • A $500 Amazon Gift Card if you are in the top 2% of participants
     
  • The 100 next most accurate will receive a $100 Amazon gift card
     
  • A $25 Amazon Gift Card otherwise

Are you up for the challenge?

We are looking for anyone who is 18 years old or more and is interested in forecasting, such as students, faculty, professionals, or retirees.