How Good Are You at Political
and Economic Forecasting?
 
 

We know more than ever before about how to make accurate predictions (e.g., Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction). Test and hone your prediction skills by joining us in The Foresight Project! This tournament is designed to help us understand the characteristics of more accurate forecasters and the environments that bring out the best in people. If you like to follow politics and you want to learn to forecast better, join us!

We are conducting the second of three tournaments (2016-2018), starting on September 25, 2017 and lasting for about 9 months. You can:

  • Take a 1 hour battery of political and psychological tests to help us predict the skills that correlate with accuracy and get feedback about yourself relative to others.
  • Make predictions about questions as often as you wish! We will post a few questions online each week, for example, "Will Donald Trump still be president by June 30, 2018?" or "Will North Korea conduct another missile test before Dec 31, 2017?" Select the questions that you like and update your predictions until the question closes. Then get feedback about your accuracy. The top 10% of forecasters will be featured on the Foresight Leaderboard.
  • You’ll get feedback on your ability to take the perspectives of others. Once again, the top 10% of forecasters will be featured on the Foresight Leaderboard.

Now, for the Rewards... If you attempt 25 or more questions throughout the year, you are eligible to win prizes in three categories. First, you can make the most accurate predictions of real world events. Second, you can make the most accurate predictions of what liberal forecasters say, and third, you could make the most accurate predictions of what conservative forecasters say. In any category, you can receive:

  • A $500 Amazon Gift Card if you are in the top 2% of participants
     
  • The 100 next most accurate will receive a $100 Amazon gift card
     
  • A $25 Amazon Gift Card otherwise

Are you up for the challenge?

We are looking for anyone who is 18 years old or more and is interested in forecasting, such as students, faculty, professionals, or retirees.