How Good Are You at Political Forecasting?
 
 

We know more than ever before about how to make accurate predictions (e.g., Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction). Test your skills by joining us in a new tournament called The Foresight Project. We want to understand what makes people more accurate and what features describe those people. If you like to follow politics and you want to improve your prediction skills by learning more, join us!

We are conducting the second of three tournaments (2016-2018), starting on September 25, 2017 and lasting for about 9 months. You can:

  • Learn about forecasting in a short module.
  • Take a 45-minute battery of political and psychological tests to help us predict the skills that correlate with forecasting accuracy and get feedback about yourself relative to others.
  • Make predictions about questions as often as you wish! We will post a few questions online each week, for example, "Will Donald Trump win the 2016 US Presidential Election?" Select the questions that you like and update your predictions until the question closes.
  • Get feedback on your forecasting accuracy after each question closes. The top 10% of forecasters will be featured on the Foresight Leaderboard.
Now, for the Rewards... Each year
  • The top 2% of participants will each be awarded a $500 Amazon gift card at the end of each year (approximately 50 people).
  • The top 2% of participants will be featured in The Washington Post, Monkey Cage at the end of each year.
  • 100 people will have a chance to win a $50 Amazon gift card (with the more accurate forecasters having better chances of winning).
  • 200 people will have a chance to win a $25 Amazon gift card (with the more accurate forecasters having better chances of winning).
 
Are you up for the challenge?
We are focused primarily on college students (undergraduates, graduate students, and professional students). If you participated in The Good Judgment Project or GJ Open, please don’t sign up for the Foresight Project. We will be announcing other tournaments in the future.  
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